2024 World Series: Yankees vs. Dodgers

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Frankly, the San Diego Padres scared me more than the New York Mets, and still scare me more than the New York Yankees. This is good news for Los Angeles Dodgers fans who are hoping the team can bring home a World Series trophy for the first time since 2020.

This team is similar in many ways to that team offensively (top-heavy with clutch production from the bottom half of the lineup), but is quite different pitching-wise. The Dodgers starting rotation has been in disarray from very early on. The Dodgers had their first bullpen game in the first week of April. First-week starters Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamomoto lost significant time due to injury. Bobby Miller led the league once in pitches over 100 mph. This year, he came back from injury, couldn’t throw 100 mph and ended the year with an 8.52 Earned Run Average in 13 games. The Dodgers tried various minor leaguers with differing degrees of success. River Ryan looked like a starter, as did Emmat Sheehan. Both joined Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May on the Injured List. Gavin Stone posted a 3.52 ERA before his season ended at the end of August. The whole season started to feel like a bullpen game. Fortunately, the bullpen stayed relatively healthy. One notable exception is Alex Vesia, who was injured during the series against the Padres. It’s unclear whether he will be able to return as a left-hander out of the bullpen. He was arguably the best reliever they had (0.86 walks and hits allowed per inning-pitched), along with Blake Treinen, and was maybe the best in the National League.

While this may have given manager Dave Roberts heartburn on a daily basis, it also prepared the bullpen for the kind of pressure that would lay in store during the postseason. This is not a team that is going to beat you with seven innings of strong starting pitching with the hope the relievers will get the final six outs. If the Dodgers are lucky, they’ll get four strong innings from their starter and use six relievers to get the final 15 outs. That is how the entire season went. One note, Walker Buehler has looked better and better each start since his return. If anyone is poised to be a traditional frontline starter this series, it’s probably him. But, the Dodgers don’t need him to be one. This year, a six-inning start might as well have been a no-hitter. But, for them, that’s okay. Go with what got you here, right? The bullpen is what got them here.

Okay…they got here with more than a little help from a couple of mashers at the top of the lineup. Offensively, the arrival of Shohei Ohtani is significant, not just because of his production, but because of the stress he causes on opposing pictures. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have two MVPs in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman following him in the batting order. For all of his success this year (54 home runs, 59 stolen bases, and 130 runs batted in) Ohtani has had times when he has been vulnerable. He strikes out once per game, though he walks once every two games. Up until the last couple weeks of the season, he was hitting only .212 with runners in scoring position. Then, during the postseason, he struggled to hit with no runners on base. If he can remain patient at the plate and take walks, the Dodgers should use his speed on the base paths to exploit weaknesses in the Yankees run defense (17 runners caught out of 77 attempts). The Dodgers were reluctant to send Ohtani when they had the chance during the first two rounds of the postseason. Dave Roberts needs to let the big man go. They have an advantage behind the plate, too. Will Smith threw out 31 percent of baserunners.

First baseman, Freddie Freeman sprained an ankle during the division series against San Diego, and the Dodgers were able to win without him. He was also on the bench when the Dodgers clinched the National League championship series against the Mets in six games. The Dodgers do not need him to beat the Yankees, but it sure would make it easier if they had him. His defense is better at first than either Max Muncy or Kike Hernandez. Both of them filled in in his absence. Even dinged up, he wins the matchup over Yankee first baseman Anthony Rizzo.

Key to the series: Dodgers pitchers better jam Rizzo. He had a field day going to the opposite field against the Guardians.

Speaking of strategy, Padres and Mets pitchers challenged KiKe Hernandez with fastballs and rarely went to sliders away in the dirt, which is strange because he loves to chase that pitch. It’s the main reason he is hitting .308 in the postseason. He was instrumental in two of the victories against the Mets.

He is part of a very deep Dodgers club. Chris, Taylor has been clutch for the team in the past, and I would not be shocked if he is clutch again in this series. His .202 batting average is incredibly deceiving. He was hitting .095 around mid year. With some at-bats, he could win a game for them. Playing time may be short. Tommy Edman was picked up coming off injury and is now a typical Dodger. He can play anywhere on the infield and can play all positions in the outfield as well. The fact Dave Roberts started him as the cleanup hitter in Game 6 of the NLCS against the Mets is telling, and the fact that Edman rose to the occasion is impressive.

For the Yankees, the reliance on star power will likely be their undoing although their stars are great. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Juan Soto are too prone to slumps and good pitching can get them out. The Dodgers bullpen tied a postseason record with a 33-inning scoreless inning streak. That will serve them well going up against these three. Gleyber Torres was quite impressive against Cleveland in the lead spot. Dodgers pitchers need to figure out how to keep him off the bases. That way if one of the big three gets a hit, it won’t hurt because there won’t be anybody on base to score. As far as the rest of the team, former Dodger, Alex Verdugo is a solid player. He has not hit so far this postseason. He’s due.

Besides Verdugo, the Dodgers should shine at the bottom of the lineup. Ohtani did not get the number of RBIs. He got over the regular season without having people on base. Jazz Chisholm Jr. looks overmatched by both fastballs and breaking stuff. Whoever is playing first in a platoon with Rizzo and whoever is catching have not looked much better.

On the mound. Carlos Rodon has looked great leading the team in strikeouts. Gerrit Cole has looked really good the first time through the lineup. But, he has appeared vulnerable the second time through. Manager Aaron Boone has not let him get to the third (16 innings pitched in five games). Tommy Kahnele has a fantastic changeup, but he relies on it entirely too much. He also starts it and his fastball in two different locations. Dodgers hitters draw walks. In a long series, they should be able to identify the pitch as a ball and not swing or they’ll be ready for it and happily golf it wherever they please. Luke Weaver is the baby-faced ass assassin coming out of the bullpen to close games. He and Tim Hill posted impressive ERAs in the postseason, but they gave up hits. With the Dodger offense, they will have to be perfect.

What does it all mean? The Dodgers have a superior team in every area by just a smidge. Getting down early in a game has not phased them in the slightest during the year or during the postseason. The Dodgers have the advantage at the top, middle, and bottom of the lineup. The Yankees are talented, though. It should be an all-time classic.

The pick: Dodgers in seven.

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