2025 Forecast: Detroit…Really?
They have a really good manager in AJ Hinch, which is never a bad thing. They also have some really good pitching and relief pitching. Tarik Skubal already has a Cy Young Award on his mantle. You get one of those when you throw 100, have great breaking stuff, and have the highest strike percentage -72- in baseball. Jack Flarety (3.17 ERA) and Reese Olson (3.53 ERA) make the Tigers’ top three tough to beat. If newby, Jackson Jobe (3:1 strikeout to walk ratio in the minors) pitches like he did there, he will not be the fifth starter for long. Casey Mize’s 2021 campaign was solid (3.71 ERA in 30 starts). He has not returned to form (4.49 ERA last year), but he will be the fourth starter for now.
It would be really nice if any of the Tigers could really hit, besides Kerry Carpenter (.284, 18 home runs, 57 RBIs in an injury-shortened season). They sure didn’t last year, despite having a balanced lineup of righties and lefties. Most of the world is still right-handed, but the Tigers have managed to find a ton of left-handed bats including Riley Greene, Colt Keith, and Zach McKinstry. Greene and Keith combined averaged .261 in 2024. Greene’s 24 homers led the team. I’m not sure how McKinstry is still in the league. How does a .220 average and 25 home runs in 1100 at-bats get you a seventh year in the bigs? The Tigers finished 29th in on-base percentage and 24th in average last year. Gleyber Torres is now manning second base. Javier Baez is still the shortstop, but he seems to have gone the Andruw Jones route to completing his playing days. The Spitter has never been shy about pointing out Baez’s weaknesses and he has been really bad up north. A .220 average, 32 home runs and 320 strikeouts while playing barely more than two full seasons is not what Detroit had in mind. Torres has been top-10 in errors twice, but he also has the eighth-best fielding percentage among active second basemen. If the Tigers are in it at the trading deadline, expect them to pick up a catcher. Jake Rogers is the starting catcher, but if he continues to fail to hit well, 2020 draft pick Dillon Dingler should be given a real shot.
Simply put, the pitching should get them in the playoffs, but the offense is really, really, really bad. It’s a winnable division, but Cleveland always seems to find a way and Kansas City is much improved. If the Tigers get to the postseason, they could easily pull off a ’91 Twins-type upset. It seems like a tall task.
Forecast: 87 wins
