How Badly Will Injuries Affect Philly?

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What has been a great season for the Philadelphia Phillies took a turn Thursday as Bryce Harper limped off the field at the end of a 7-4 loss to the Marlins…just an inning after Kyle Schwarber left the game with groin tightness. Their impact is impossible to ignore on a team with some quality players, but only one who seems likely to carry the load of an offense without those two power-hitters on the field. We will see if Alec Bohm can come through now that Harper and Schwarber are on the Injured List.

Harper’s impact on the game is undeniable. He goes all out on every play and his energy is infectious. He leads the team in home runs and is third in average among players with at least 40 games. It can not be a coincidence that Phillies fan involvement was among the best of the eight teams we recently saw play in person.

Shortstop Trea Turner is still putting up numbers that will make it difficult to keep him out of the Hall of Fame. He has played in just half of the teams’s games, however. He missed time with a hamstring issue. When he’s in there, he is contributing (.329 batting average). The Phillies were smart to give him rest. Hamstrings are nothing to mess around with. (Harper will likely receive the same treatment). Turner is prone to an occasional error, but his quickness allows him to get to balls that others can’t. This also increases the number of errors with which he is charged during the course of a season. The power is missing, though, with just three home runs in 41 games.

Third baseman Alec Bohm has reduced his strikeout-to-walk ratio every year. He leads the team in Runs-Batted-In and doubles. His average is up 20 points over his career average (.280).

Kyle Schwarber has struck out more than 100 times but he’s also walked 60 times. He’s making more contact and his average is up to .250. Brandon Marsh, JT Realmuto, and Edmundo Sosa are all hitting better than .260. Realmuto is out for a month though, having had surgeries on both knees.

You wouldn’t expect Whit Merrifield to be hitting .191, but he is. It’s shocking how lost he looks at the plate. Nick Castellanos has looked similarly perplexed at the plate. He was hitting below .200 at one point, but has rallied to lift his average to .222.

The starting pitching has been great with the exception of Taijuan Walker (5.60 Earned Run Average). Zach Wheeler has been sharp (2.73 ERA). When he’s been off, though, it’s been spectacular. He gave up eight earned runs in Baltimore on June 16. Cristopher Sanchez has similar numbers to Wheeler’s but Ranger Suarez is leading them both in the Cy Young race (2.01 ERA, .093 Walks-plus-hits-per-inning, and better than a strikeout per inning). Aaron Nola (3.38 ERA) would be leading many pitching staffs and is fourth best on his own team. The starting pitching has decreased the stress on the bullpen and on manager, Rob Thompson. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering have been lights out with ERAs under one-and-a-half in relief.

If any team is built to survive a couple of key injuries, it’s Philadelphia. I have to wonder though when the pitching will go through a downturn and if the non-performers on offense will rise to the occasion. The Phils are 53-28 at the halfway point. Will they win 106? With these injuries, probably not. But, if everyone gets healthy by September, this is a team that could do real damage in the postseason. Right now, they look like the best team in the National League.

Forecast: Philly wins more than it loses in the second half, ends up with 97 wins, and probably wins the World Series.

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