It’s going to be a battle. Three teams are pretty obvious playoff contenders.

New York Mets

Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco are new as the Mets try to win their first division title in more than a decade. Bichette has missed 130 games the last three years due to injury. That has to be a concern for Mets fans. 2024 was particularly awful for Bichette. Not only did he miss half of the team’s games, but he also hit .225. Shortstop, Francisco Lindor is dealing with his own injury, a broken hamate bone suffered February 13. Jorge Polanco hit 30 home runs last year, which was a career high. He also struck out 55 fewer times than the year before. If New York has played its cards right, Polanco’s 12th year was the year he really figured out the game. At 32, that would be a good time to do it. He was designated hitter last year for most of the year, but a second baseman before that. He led the league in errors in 2021. Can he give the team more options by improving his defense? The infield already has a ton of options. Marcus Semien once led the league in errors. Three years later, he led it in fielding percentage. With Franciso Lindor and Bichette, Polanco, and Bret Baty, the Mets should be able to keep their infield rested and healthy. Carson Benge hit .366 in 14 games last year. There is nothing to say he can sustain that. You can pencil Juan Soto in for 40 homers and 100 runs batted in. With Bichette, Semien, Lindor and Polanco’s power, this team should bludgeon opponents.

On the mound, Freddy Peralta could be the most important off-season signing in Major League Baseball. He’s been a solid second starter his entire career for Milwaukee. Last year, he was an ace (17-6, 2.70 earned run average). Nolan McLean was fast-tracked through the minors. His ERA has actually improved as the quality of the opposition has improved. He struck out 57 and walked just 16.in his eight starts last year. Clay Holmes had not started a game until last year, when he started 31. His numbers were on par with Peralta’s career marks. David Peterson is a lefty and a decent fifth starters. His career walks and hits per inning pitched (1.38 WHIP) is way too high. Kodai Senga is a number two if he is healthy. He had 22 starts last year, but only one the year before that. The bullpen looks really good. Sean Manaea gives them a sixth starter. Luis García isn’t terrible. His 4.08 career ERA is the second-worst of the staff. Richard Lovelady is a lefty. He and his career ERA of 5.35 will likely be shipped out first, if he continues to give up more than a run every two innings.

Forecast: This team looks stacked. They could very well meet the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. 96 wins.

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have okay starters but that won’t be enough to catch the Mets.. Cristopher Sánchez has posted better numbers every year as a pro. He was second in Cy Young voting last year with 212 strikeouts in 202 innings. Zach Wheeler and he should win a lot of games. After that is where the problems start. Jesus Lazardo and Taijuan Walker are both fifth starters. Aaron Nola is a strong second starter when healthy. He missed half of 2025. Andrew Painter struggled to a 5.40 ERA with the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs last year.

As J.T. Realmuto goes, so go the Phillies. The team is 100 games below .500 without him (454-556) according to www.statmuse.com. He handles the pitching well and still hits .260 every year.

The lineup is solid. Trea Turner is a game changer. If he doesn’t use his speed and power to reach second base (285 career), he steals the bag anyway (316 career). The fact he can hit 20 bombs a year doesn’t hurt. I hate strikeouts but, God I love watching Kyle Schwarber bat. The fact he’s raised his batting average 40 points a year over the last two years makes him a threat instead of a one-bomb-every-once-in-a-while wonder. Doubtful he hits 56 again, but 40 will certainly do. Bryce Harper, Alex Bohm, Bryson Stott, Adolis Garcia (more power, decreasing batting average compared to departed Harrison Bader), Brandon Marsh, Rafael Marchan, and Justin Crawford. All except Harper and Marchan can be counted on for something in the neighborhood of .265 and 10-18 homers. Marchan hit just .210 last year. Rookie centerfielder, Justin Crawford has hit at every level of the minors (.322, 45 stolen bases per year). If he can translate that into the big leagues, he and Turner could literally run circles around the opposition.

The weak link last year was the bullpen. The relief corps was 19th in ERA. In the offseason, Philadelphia signed Twins closer Jhoan Duran and reliever Brad Keller. Keller was outstanding in 2025, going 4-2 with a 2.07 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .182 opponents’ batting average. He struck out 75 in 68 appearances and walked 22 in 69 2/3 innings. Johnathan Bowlan posted a 3.86 ERA in 33 games last year. 

Forecast: They should be close, but they’re not as good as the Mets. They should be in the Wild Card series. 90 wins

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Atlanta Braves

Funny, the Braves have no depth chart on the front page of their website? What are they afraid of? Or do they just not have any depth? It seems like their web ninja doesn’t understand the game so well. They have 11 starters, according to the site, including Didier Fuentes who is in the minors.

Offensively, they have pieces. Drake Baldwin is one of the best hitting catchers in the game and he’s only 25. Ronald Acuña Jr. is back. Did you know he has played in just two full seasons? We will see how the ACL recovery is in full this year. He had just nine stolen bases in 95 games last year. Ozzie Albies had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (94:55) of his career last year. He’ll hurt teams with his bat and his glove. He’s led the league in assists in four-of-eight full seasons. Michael Harris II walked 16 times last year. 16! How does a guy with his speed not take a pitch? Because he’s striking out 128 times, that’s why. Matt Olson will likely hit around 30 homers. With the pitching at the top of this division, he’ll have to fatten his RBI stats against teams at the bottom. Mauricio Dubón was a nice pickup. Houston let him go after he won a Gold Glove. He is a contact hitter (42 K’s to 24 BBs in 2026) but he doesn’t really do a ton with the balls he puts in play. Austin Riley can hit 35 dingers or he can miss 60 games with injury.

Kyle Farmer (.252 vs. lefties, 211 vs. righties) and Mike Yastrzemski (.256 vs. righties, .138 vs. lefties) will platoon in the outfield.

Chris Sale turns 37 to open the season. He has started 70 games for the Braves the last three years, including his 29-appearance Cy Young season of ’24. the other two seasons saw him pitch 20 times each year. Great when he’s in there. Not in there often enough. Reynaldo Lopez (Career: 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) is a solid first/second starter, who missed all of last year due to arthroscopic shoulder surgery. The year before that, he mosted an ERA under 2.00. Grant Holmes‘ hair might belong in Florida Gator Grabbers, but the guy is a solid number three. (3.75 ERA 193 K’s in 183.1 innings pitched). Bryce Elder is coming off two wretched seasons (231 hits allowed in 206 IP). They needed him last year, but didn’t get much as they struggled to a fourth-place finish. Gotta root for the guy after he started his career with two really good seasons.

They have a ton of injured pitchers. Spencer Schwellenbach is out with bone spurs (3.23 ERA in 38 career starts). He must have shared a glass with Hurston Waldrep (2.88 ERA in 10 games last year). Waldrep had surgery to remove “loose bodies” from his elbow. Spencer Strider has gone elbow, hamstring, lopsided mustache, oblique on the injury list the last three seasons. He was really good in 2022-23.The Braves need a lefty starter. Martín Pérez was good last year, but only appeared in 11 games. Jose Suarez was good four seasons ago, but not since (5.34 career ERA, 1.86 ERA in seven mostly-relief appearances last year).

JR Ritchie had what seems to be obligatory Tommy John surgery for any young pitcher in 2023. He pitched 140 innings last year in the minors with opposing batters hitting .175 against him. He seems the most likely for a call-up.

As with every team, health is key. But, it seems like almost everyone they are counting on has a history of injuries. Assume the worst, celebrate if all goes well.

Forecast: 88 wins. Likely Wild Card. If reasonably healthy, add five or six to that total.

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Miami Marlins

This Fightin’ Fish team is young AKA no experience AKA total rebuild AKA Mighty Ducks-esque. Owen Caissie has all of 26 Major League at-bats. Left-fielder Griffin Conine has 161. Catcher Liam Hicks is a grizzled veteran with 332 at-bats in comparison. The good news is the results have been in the .250-.260 range so far. 

Otto Lopez provides decent offense from the shortstop position. (21 homers in about the same number of at-bats as Edwards. Third baseman Connor Norby and outfielder, Heriberto Hernández are right there in that .250 zone, too. Graham Pauley

It looks like they are building around second baseman, Xavier Edwards, and if they are willing to spend money now, they have a chance to be really good for a really long time. If they don’t spend money now, MLB needs to step in and force a sale. The front office has done its job.  Edwards is a .304 career hitter with 65 steals in a season and a half.

On the mound, Sandy Alcantara was a Cy Young winner before a bum elbow knocked him out. His return last year was not good (5.36 ERA in 2025). Eury Pérez saw his ERA jump a full run last year after he also had Tommy John surgery. Max Meyer has gone from terrible (5.68 ERA in 2024) to not good.

All of this adds up to a lot of close games through four or five innings and then a need for a strong bullpen. Unfortunately, this is not where Marlins management spent its money. There are four relievers –Pete Fairbanks, Anthony Bender, Tyler Phillips, and Luke Bacher- with decent career numbers, even if the number of games in those careers is relatively low.

Forecast: They are going to win some games. They desperately need to shore up the bullpen while the returning starters regain their form. A couple of recuperating starters, those four relievers, and eight guys who hit .250 could hold them for the first couple of months…maybe the first half of the season. But, that can’t hold up forever. It’s hard to see more than 73 wins without reinforcements.

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Washington Nationals

Nothing personal, but if Miles Mikolas (ERA of about 5.00 during the last three years) is your big free agent signings, you’ve got problems. Zach Littell is also new. he’s been effective the last two years with a WHIP around 1.18. Definite third starter. Josiah Gray seems to be a decent fourth starter with his improvement last year (ERA dropped 1.11 from the year before). Caleb Cavelli has 11 career starts. Jake Irvin has been just as bad as Mikolas. Foster Griffin hasn’t made a start in the majors in four years.

Offensively, what do they have? First baseman Luis Garcia Jr. (.266 career ave.) has averaged 17 homers the last two years. He will split time with Curtis Mead, who has only five homers in 445 at-bats. Third baseman Brady House has about 100 fewer than that. There is lots of youth here, much like the Marlins. Infielder Nasim Nuñez makes the club after playing in 90 games during the last two years. Jorbit Vivas hit .271 in the minors. CJ Abrams hit .329 in the minors. That kind of showing often means much the same at the big-league level. Catcher, Keibert Ruiz (.248 career ave.) is decent.

In the outfield, Daylen Lile, Jacob Young, James Wood, and Joey Wiemer will split time. Lile hit .299 his rookie year. Wood hit 31 homers his first full season. Young’s batting average was 25 points worse in his second full year compared to his first. Wiemer hasn’t shown he can hit much at all.

Forecast: It’s hard to tell what young talent is going to do. The starting pitching is not great. Abrams and Lile could be good, but Abrams is signing single-year deals, apparently until he can flee this situation. They aren’t as good as Miami. 67 wins