Chicago Cubs 2026 Forecast

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Chicago has talent.

Nico Hoerner is one of the best two hitters in the game. .284 with 30 doubles and the same number of stolen bases is about as good as it gets. It seems like a contender needs a first baseman who can rake. Michael Busch made the case that he’s that guy with 34 bombs last year. Alex Bregman is great protection for Busch if he can hit 25 bombs and .272 which are roughly his recent totals. Dandy Swanson is right there with the power numbers, too.

In the outfield, Michael Conforto joins the mix. His .199 average last year had been much, much worse but he figured it out. He joins Ian Happ, who hits .243 with a homer every six-and-a-half games and a walk every other game.

Am I the only one who’s wondering if Pete Crow-Armstrong (.240 career ave.) can learn from his mistakes and really take advantage of his speed? It’s great that his 17 runs saved tied for the major league lead last year (according to sportsinfosolutions.com) but how many runs  did he fail to score or drive in because of a poor approach at the plate? Question: How does a guy with that speed walk only 29 times? Answer: He’s trying to hit a home run every time up. Yes, he hit 31 home runs. Yes, he drove in 95. But, he also left 281 men on base. That was 12th worst in the majors. He was exposed in the National League Division Series against Milwaukee (.118 ave., six strikeouts and one walk.).

Right fielder Seiya Suzuki had a strange stat line in ‘25. His homer rate increased, his walks stayed about the same, and his strikeout percentage dropped. Sounds great, right? His batting average fell 40 points! How does that happen??? Matt Shaw enters the season shy of 400 at-bats. Hard to tell what he’s going to do.

On the mound, the Cubs might almost be as good as the Dodgers. Cade Horton made a claim last year to be the ace of the staff with a 12-4 record an 2.66 ERA his first year. Shota Imanaga has been a solid number two starter averaging about 3.30 for an ERA the last two years. Edward Cabrera looks like he could be a very good fourth starter. He dropped his ERA by about a run and a half last year compared to 2024. Jameson Taillon is also right around 3.80-3.90. Collin Rea is also sub 4.00. His ERA has dropped every year for the last three years.  Matthew Boyd was very good last year (3.21 ERA), but can he repeat that? History would indicate a no. And then there’s Justin Steele, who should return within the first couple of months after a ligament injury last year. 

Forecast: With the pitching and a really good offense, this looks like 95 wins. If Crow-Armstrong can take that next step, it could be 10 more that, maybe more

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