2026 Preview: N.L. Central
Nico Hoerner is one of the best two hitters in the game. .284 with 30 doubles and the same number of stolen bases is about as good as it gets. It seems like a contender needs a first baseman who can rake. Michael Busch made the case that he’s that guy with 34 bombs last year. Alex Bregman is great protection for Busch if he can hit 25 bombs and .272 which are roughly his recent totals. Dandy Swanson is right there with the power numbers, too. In the outfield, Michael Conforto joins the mix. His .199 average last year had been much, much worse but he figured it out. He joins Ian Happ, who hits .243 with a homer every six-and-a-half games and a walk every other game. Am I the only one who’s wondering if Pete Crow-Armstrong (.240 career ave.) can learn from his mistakes and really take advantage of his speed? It’s great that his 17 runs saved tied for the major league lead last year (according to sportsinfosolutions.com) but how many runs did he fail to score or drive in because of a poor approach at the plate? Question: How does a guy with that speed walk only 29 times? Answer: He’s trying to hit a home run every time up. Yes, he hit 31 home runs. Yes, he drove in 95. But, he also left 281 men on base. That was 12th worst in the majors. Right fielder Seiya Suzuki had a strange stat line in ‘25. His homer rate increased, his walks stayed about the same, and his strikeout percentage dropped. Sounds great, right? His batting average fell 40 points! How does that happen??? Matt Shaw enters the season shy of 400 at-bats. Hard to tell what he’s going to do.
On the mound, the Cubs might be as good as the Dodgers. Cade Horton made a claim last year to be the ace of the staff with a 12-4 record an 2.66 ERA his first year. Shota Imanaga has been a solid number two starter averaging about 3.30 for an ERA the last two years. Edward Cabrera looks like he could be a very good fourth starter. He dropped his ERA by about a run and a half last year compared to 2024. Jameson Taillon is also right around 3.80-3.90. Collin Rea is also sub 4.00. His ERA has dropped every year for the last three years. Matthew Boyd was very good last year (3.21 ERA), but can he repeat that? History would indicate a no. And then there’s Justin Steele, who should return within the first couple of months after a ligament injury last year.
Forecast: With the pitching and a really good offense, this looks like 95 wins. If Crow-Armstrong can take that next step, it could be 10 more that, maybe more.
The Pirates could scare some teams. The pitching staff is young, but talented. Paul Skenes is the ace, but after him only one other hurler had more than 90 strikeouts last year.
Braxton Ashcraft and Carmen Mlodzinski have served time as relievers and starters. It looks like Pittsburgh is going to give them a chance to start. Bubba Chandler started four games in ‘25. He struck out one per inning. Mitch Keller is a fifth starter.
The Pirates lost 11 relievers from a staff that was thirteenth in ERA last year. Dennis Santana and Gregory Soto had really good years last year. Was that an anomaly? Yohan Ramírez (5.40 ERA in 2025) hasn’t had a good year since 2021.
Reliever Mason Montgomery’s 5.67 ERA will have to improve. Jose Urquidy is a question mark. He’s coming off injury and hasn’t pitched in more than two games since 2013.
At the plate, centerfielder Oneil Cruz hit 21 home runs last year but seriously regressed at the plate, managing to hit only .200. He stole 38 bases but couldn’t even muster a .300 on base percentage. Part of the reason is an unwillingness to walk when the possibility presents itself. He’s only had 115 walks over the last two years combined. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn gives the Pirates 40 extra base hits a year. For a guy with a 250 career average it would be nice if he realized what his power potential is and looked to start making more contact.
Brandon Lowe was a good pick up from Tampa Bay. He gives the Bucs some power out of the second base position. One problem he’s had is staying healthy. He’s only had one season where he appeared in more than 110 games. Bryan Reynolds has been through the worst and best of times. It would be nice to see him have some success again. He certainly been doing his part. He usually comes in at .270 and 25 home runs a year. One key could be Marcell Ozuna. I see the guy who hit .302 years ago or the guy who hit .232 last year? Jake Mangum hit .29 for his rookie year. Pittsburgh hopes he does not have a sophomore slump. He could be great.
Forecast: All told the team has a bunch of question marks on the mound but several solid players offensively. If everything goes perfectly and the pitching comes around, they could win 88 or even 90 games. Right now? Looks like 86.
Milwaukee has a couple of good pieces and a lot of problems. Catcher, William Contreras is the anchor. Bryce Turang at second could be a number three hitter for a long time or a number five. He’s the only protection Contreras has if Yelich goes down. Jackson Chourio is almost exactly what you want from a leadoff hitter: good bat control and above-average speed. Problem is his on-base percentage is as bad as Gary Sanchez’s. .309 is not good. Sanchez is where he should be as a guy who barely walks and barely hits .200: backup catcher and part-time DH. Problem for Milwaukee is the other first baseman, Jake Bauers, is almost his clone. Bauers has stayed in the big leagues with 58 homers in six years because he can play just about every position (a .991 fielding percentage) and has become one of the best mop-up pitchers among fielders who are called on to save the bullpen (4.00 ERA in nine appearances).
Centerfielder Garrett Mitchell has all of 390 career at bats. Hard to tell how he’s going to fare once the league adjusts to him. Same story goes for leftfielder Brandon Lockridge. Sal Frelick is the kind of guy you like to have to be a fourth outfielder and give the big three a rest every fourth day. He’s not incredible, but he gives you a chance to win because he can handle the bat decently. Christian Yelich is not the threat he was. At least he was able to play 150 games last year. Hard to believe he just turned 34. Seems like just yesterday. He was the new kid on the block.
If holes on the left side of the diamond in Luis Rengifo and Joey Ortiz.
They’ll need to pitch their way to the playoffs because they certainly aren’t going to hit their way there.
Jacob Misiorowski showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie (4.36 ERA, 87 strikeouts in 66 innings. He has the tools to be an ace. Last year 31 pitches topped 100 mph. I question whether he needs to throw that hard and if he’s going to break down as a result. He’s 6’7”, so maybe he’s the second coming of Randy Johnson and not Noah Syndergaard. Chad Patrick was even better (3.53 ERA) his first year. Brandon Sproat (4.79 ERA, 17 K’s in 20 ip) was not nearly as impressive with the Mets. Brandon Woodruff is a solid number three. Kyle Harrison spent most of last year in the minors. He looks like a fourth or fifth starter. He was probably brought up too early. He’s only 24.
There is no one who looks like they can hid the bullpen together for any length of time, so quality starts will be at a premium. Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby have been solid out of the pen. Their lefty depth looks like a weakness with Jared Koenig going on the IL.
Forecast: The starters get them 65 percent of the way there. The bullpen holds on as best as it can. The offense struggles. Lots of one-run games here. The Brew Crew win 83 of them.
Elly De La Cruz is not thaaaaat good. Yes, he’s good, but to hear broadcasters talk about him, he’s the second coming of Derek Jeter. Lots of potential. He reminds me of Rickey Henderson: fearless base stealer, but the strikeouts have to come down. Henderson averaged 115 walks over a 162-game season. De La Cruz averages 66. One homer every nine strikeouts is not what you’d call efficient.
In his brief career, Sal Stewart is hitting .274 against righties and .389 against righties. Those kind of numbers are what you build a team around. Fun fact about new Designated Hitter, Eugenio Suarez: he is currently 25th on the all-time strikeouts list, having just passed Dave Kingman, having needed three fewer seasons. Next up on the list are Bobby Abreu and Derek Jeter. Suarez will pass Jeter in seven fewer seasons. I hate watching Lord Farquad bat. He left 284 men on base last year, ninth worst in MLB.
Spencer Steer is an above-average fielder, but is the D good enough to offset 20 homers/year and a .240 average from a first baseman? While I’m giving a thumbs down, you all discuss. They’re okay for an outfielder and even better for a second baseman.
Catcher Tyler Stephenson should beat those numbers hitting in the five spot. He missed half the year after fracturing his thumb against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Ke’Bryan Hayes was signed away from Pittsburgh.
On the mound, Chase Burns comes to the season with 13 career games played. His batting average against was .240, which isn’t terrible. Too many hits bumped up his WHIP to 1.32. Burns is a grizzled veteran compared to Rhett Lowder. He had six games in 2024 with an impressive ERA, but then got injured. Andrew Abbott looks like the ace of the staff. He had a 2.87 ERA in 29 starts last year. Is ERA improved his second and third years in the league. Brady Singer looks like a fourth or fifth starter with a career ERA right around 4.00. Brandon Williamson’s WHIP is the same as Burns. He’s coming back from surgery, but he’s got to show improvement or he’s destined for the bullpen.
Speaking of which, Graham Ashcraft knocked a full run off his ERA by going to the pen last year. Brock Burke was also solid , as was Tony Santillan.
Forecast: Three guys who are fair to good at the plate, a bunch of questions on the mound, and some decent bullpen pieces. If the young starters surprise, this could be an 83-win team. It feels more like 77.
JJ Wetherholt will be asked to lead the offense. The rookie hit .306 in two minor league seasons. He has 30 homer, 30 stolen base ability. He could be one of the game’s future stars. Jordan Walker, Iván Herrera, Masyn Winn, Nathan Church, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese and Victor Scott are all 25 years old or younger. Scott in particular has struggled. Ramón Urías, Alex Burleson, and catcher Pedro Pagés are the “grizzled” vets who also look to be easily replaceable.
On the mound, Andre Pallante has been good one year, really ineffective the next. Kyle Leahy was good in relief (3.09 ERA last year). Can he make the move to starter? Some guys can… Dustin May cut off the red locks and started growing them out of his face instead. A can’t miss prospect, injuries have threatened to derail his career. He could be the ace if he can find his form. He did not look good upon his return last year. Matthew Liberatore’s ERA has improved every year of the four he’s been in the league. Michael McGreevy’s ERA in the minors was 4.08. Forgive me if I don’t call him the next Bob Gibson after a decent 21 games in the big leagues.
Forecast: This team is the result of four years of drafting and trading at the minor league level. There are so many questions. The price of experience will be steep. A 70-win should be considered a success.